Last week, a reader of my Jet2 Holidays blog commented: “No airline ever makes money in the long run because of fuel prices!” On Friday, I called him a pessimist when I should have complimented him on his crystal ball skills, as we then woke up on Saturday to the disastrous news of a US-Israeli war on Iran.

How many times have we been here? Just as things are going well for the UK outbound Travel industry, ash clouds, wars and Covid-19 jump out of nowhere to rip up our plans and force an emergency meeting to look at how we get our customers out of danger, whilst insurance companies run for the hills and deny all liabilities.

Personally, I am hoping that the worst of the war will be over within a month, and the skies around vital long-haul transport hubs of the Middle East will open again, but my fear is that the new age of drones and terrorism may cause major disruption for years to come.

We saw how one drone managed to close Gatwick airport for 33 hours in Dec 2018, so it’s not hard to imagine ongoing disruption to aviation long after the US has bombed Iran’s missile launching capabilities into the dust.

However, let’s look at some positives.

Although aviation fuel prices have surged 50%, rising from $2.50 to $3.95 per gallon, airlines like Jet2 and Easyjet have already secured most of their 2026 fuel requirements through hedging, which shields them in the short term from these price increases. These spikes are likely to subside once Iran’s ability to restrict the use of the Strait of Hormuz diminishes

Also, it’s important to remember that long-haul holidays of over 6 hours account for only 20% of all ATOL-bonded holidays departing the UK. Although this is devastating for long-haul specialists, most travel businesses can shift their resources to selling short-haul holidays, which we have already seen are still booming despite conflicts in regions like Ukraine.

Yes, we are likely to see substantial price rises next year due to higher fuel prices, but again, we have seen after COVID-19 how resilient the beach market is to price increases, with average prices increasing 30% compared to pre-COVID levels. The bottom line is that people value their time away with their families, and wars in faraway places are not going to put them off.

However, I am afraid that terrorism will, and we simply do not know whether the war with Iran will translate into more terrorist activity, but as ever, tourism remains a high-profile target, and this is the long-term disrupter I fear the most.  However, this is a fear we have all been living with for a long time, so is it really a new factor? Probably not.

In the short term, watch out for new “Temporary” hubs with safer skies to be created by Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, as these airlines are not going to leave their aircraft sitting on the ground for long.

These hubs will swiftly reconnect stranded customers with their home countries, and I anticipate a surge of low-cost long-haul holidays entering the market as these airlines strive to rekindle demand and utilise their spare capacity.

Personally, I have no issue with heading for a value winter sun break to Dubai this winter as soon as regular scheduled services re-appear and as a board member of the ITT, I will be pushing for the conference to return to the Middle East as a clear demonstration of our support for the region as a growing leisure destination because unlike our Prime Minister, I know who our long term partners are.

We know we live in a volatile world, but let’s not all sink into doom and gloom when history shows that, as a resilient industry, we are capable of absorbing hits like the Iran War.

Onwards and upwards!